Nigeria recorded approximately 3.33 million barrels of crude oil theft in 2025, with nearly two thirds of the reported volume occurring in the fourth quarter, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission in its 2025 annual report released on Thursday.
The figure highlights the scale of crude oil losses recorded during the year, despite ongoing efforts to strengthen production security and improve output from the country’s upstream sector.
The quarterly breakdown shows that reported theft stood at 896,471 barrels in the first quarter, while the second quarter recorded a negative 200,400 barrels, which the commission described as an excess volume arising from reconciliation. Losses then climbed to 440,434 barrels in the third quarter before rising sharply to 2.19 million barrels in the fourth quarter, representing about 66 percent of the annual total.
Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate during the year, with output rising from 132.70 million barrels in the first quarter to 137.69 million barrels in the second, before easing to 137.45 million in the third and 133.23 million in the fourth. Unblended condensate production added another 48.52 million barrels.
Beyond the production and theft figures, the commission reported progress in processing field development plans meant to expand upstream capacity, handling 75 applications in 2025, made up of 58 received during the year and 17 carried forward from 2024. Of these, 48 were approved, 10 rejected and 17 remained under processing at year end.
The approved projects are expected to develop about 1.75 billion barrels of oil reserves, 104.48 million barrels of condensate reserves and 8.19 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, while adding 743,830 barrels of oil per day, 23,707 barrels of condensate per day and 3.09 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day to production capacity. The commission said first oil is expected between 2026 and 2030, with seven of the 48 approved plans focused exclusively on non associated gas development.
The report comes amid continued scrutiny of Nigeria’s efforts to curb crude oil theft. In August 2026, Tony Elumelu said the country’s oil production losses had fallen from 97 percent before President Bola Tinubu assumed office in 2023 to 2 percent as of June 2026, according to Nairametrics, having earlier raised concerns in March 2022 that Nigeria was losing more than 95 percent of some oil production to theft.
For 2026, the Federal Government’s budget is based on crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day at an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, but OPEC data cited in the report put Nigeria’s average output at 1.505 million barrels per day since July 2026, below the budget assumption.
The latest figures reinforce the importance of sustained efforts to secure production infrastructure and reduce crude losses, and while the commission’s projected additions offer significant potential for higher output, delivering those volumes will depend on the timely execution of the approved development plans.
By Asiwaju Adekunle Saheed
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